CFL Game Simulator
Every CFL game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook prices, producing a final score, a full offensive box score and the range of outcomes around them.
Today's CFL board
How a CFL simulation is built
The CFL is a different game from the NFL and the simulation treats it as one: three downs instead of four, a larger field, and a scoring set that includes the single. That produces a different distribution of drive outcomes and a different scoring shape, which is why the engine carries a CFL-specific configuration rather than reusing the NFL's. Quarters and halves reconcile to the full game, the player layer splits into passing, rushing and receiving, and touchdown-scorer markets resolve against the same simulated drives that produced the score.
- Q1First quarter
- Q2Second quarter
- Q3Third quarter
- Q4Fourth quarter
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- Q1: First quarter
- Q2: Second quarter
- Q3: Third quarter
- Q4: Fourth quarter
What gets priced into a CFL simulation
These are the market families the CFL engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team points · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- Q1–Q4 and H1–H2
- Player markets
- Passing, rushing and receiving
- Specialty markets
- First touchdown and anytime touchdown
SimTheGame keeps no CFL power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how CFL markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced CFL market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which CFL markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Spread
- Game total
- Both team point totals
- Quarter and half totals and spreads
- Passing, rushing and receiving props
- First and anytime touchdown
Touchdown-scorer markets are priced on one side only. A CFL board also carries fewer player markets than an NFL board, so fewer rows are tagged.
CFL simulator questions
How is the CFL different from the NFL in the simulation?
Enough that it runs its own configuration rather than reusing the NFL's. Three downs instead of four means more possessions change hands, a larger field changes the value of field position, and the CFL's scoring set includes the single.
Is the rouge modelled?
Yes, and it matters more than it sounds. Because a single is worth one point, every integer score is reachable in the CFL, where the four-down game clusters on scores built from 3s and 7s. That gives CFL totals a visibly different shape, and the alternate-total ladder reflects it.
Why does a CFL game show fewer player markets?
Sportsbooks post a shallower player board for the CFL than for the NFL. The simulation reproduces the markets that exist, so a CFL box score is typically built from fewer priced thresholds and fewer rows get tagged.
How is CFL overtime simulated?
As alternating possessions, not sudden death. Each side gets the ball, so a CFL overtime produces a different distribution of final scores than an NFL one, where the first score can end it. The engine carries the CFL rule rather than reusing the four-down game's.
Run a CFL game yourself
Open the simulator to pick a CFL game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · NFL game simulator · MLB game simulator · NHL game simulator · WNBA game simulator · MLS game simulator