WNBA Game Simulator
A WNBA game is 40 minutes and prices out around 160 points, not the 220 an NBA game does. Every game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook markets, producing a final score, a full box score, and the range of outcomes around them.
Today's WNBA board
ADAtlanta Dream
CSConnecticut Sun
LASLos Angeles Sparks
NYLNew York Liberty
WMWashington Mystics
LVALas Vegas Acessimulated points, both teams combined
Show these numbers as a table
| Game | Median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream at Connecticut Sun | 174 | 154 to 206 |
| Los Angeles Sparks at New York Liberty | 187 | 165 to 222 |
| Washington Mystics at Las Vegas Aces | 170 | 150 to 202 |
How a WNBA simulation is built
Two things make a WNBA simulation behave differently from an NBA one, and neither is the model. The first is the clock: ten-minute quarters instead of twelve means roughly a sixth fewer possessions, so the whole distribution sits lower and a single run of scoring moves the result further. The second is the market. Fewer books price the WNBA, and those that do post a shallower player board, so the simulated box score is built from fewer priced thresholds and varies more from game to game. The simulation never invents a market that is not there; a thin board produces a correspondingly thin box score, and the page says so rather than filling the gap.
- Q1First quarter
- Q2Second quarter
- Q3Third quarter
- Q4Fourth quarter
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- Q1: First quarter
- Q2: Second quarter
- Q3: Third quarter
- Q4: Fourth quarter
What gets priced into a WNBA simulation
These are the market families the WNBA engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team totals · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- Q1–Q4 and H1–H2
- Player markets
- 9 priced stats per player
- Specialty markets
- First basket, first team to score, and scoring method
SimTheGame keeps no WNBA power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how WNBA markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced WNBA market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which WNBA markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Spread
- Game total
- Both team totals
- Quarter and half totals and spreads
- Nine player stat categories
- First basket and scoring method
First-basket markets are priced on one side only, and a WNBA game typically carries fewer priced player markets than an NBA game, so fewer rows get tagged at all.
WNBA simulator questions
Does the simulator adjust for pace, rest or travel?
No, and deliberately. Those are already priced into the numbers the sportsbook posted, and the simulation's job is to reproduce that market consistently rather than to second-guess it. If a team is on the second night of a back-to-back, the effect is in the line before the simulation ever sees it.
Is the WNBA simulation the same engine as the NBA?
Yes. The structure is identical: joint team scores, quarter and half splits that reconcile to the full game, a nine-category ladder for every priced player, and first-basket markets that sum to 100%. What differs is the input, not the model.
Why do some WNBA games show fewer player markets?
Fewer sportsbooks price the WNBA, and those that do post fewer player markets per game than for a comparable NBA game. The simulation can only reproduce markets that exist, so the depth of a WNBA box score varies more from game to game.
Are WNBA first-basket and scoring-method markets simulated?
Where the sportsbook posts them. They resolve last, after the scoring has already been drawn, and their long-run rates sum to 100% across the priced players. Because they are quoted on one side only, a simulated lean away from them is reported as neutral rather than as a disagreement.
Run a WNBA game yourself
Open the simulator to pick a WNBA game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · NFL game simulator · MLB game simulator · NHL game simulator · CFL game simulator · MLS game simulator