NFL Game Simulator
Every NFL game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook prices, producing a final score, a full offensive box score and the distribution of outcomes around them.
Today's NFL board
DLDetroit Lions
CBCincinnati Bengals
GBPGreen Bay Packers
PSPittsburgh Steelers
ICIndianapolis Colts
NEPNew England Patriots
LACLos Angeles Chargers
HTHouston Texans
ACArizona Cardinals
LVRLas Vegas Raiders
TTTennessee Titans
SF4San Francisco 49erssimulated points, both teams combined
Show these numbers as a table
| Game | Median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals | 38 | 21 to 57 |
| Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers | 40 | 23 to 60 |
| Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots | 37 | 20 to 57 |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans | 37 | 22 to 57 |
| Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas Raiders | 42 | 25 to 61 |
| Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers | 40 | 23 to 60 |
How an NFL simulation is built
Football concentrates its scoring into a small number of drives, so the total is a lumpy distribution rather than a smooth one, a simulated game lands on 20 or 24 far more often than on 21 or 22, and that shape is what the alternate-total ladder is describing. Team scores are sampled jointly with the quarter and half markets reconciling back to them. The player layer splits by position group, and touchdown-scorer markets resolve against the same simulated drives that produced the score, so the anytime-scorer rates and the team total cannot disagree. Preseason games are priced and simulated as their own competition, because starters play a fraction of the snaps.
- Q1First quarter
- Q2Second quarter
- Q3Third quarter
- Q4Fourth quarter
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- Q1: First quarter
- Q2: Second quarter
- Q3: Third quarter
- Q4: Fourth quarter
What gets priced into an NFL simulation
These are the market families the NFL engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team points · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- Q1–Q4 and H1–H2
- Player markets
- Quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end markets
- Specialty markets
- First touchdown and anytime touchdown
SimTheGame keeps no NFL power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how NFL markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced NFL market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which NFL markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Spread
- Game total
- Both team point totals
- Quarter and half totals and spreads
- Quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end props
- First and anytime touchdown
Touchdown-scorer markets are priced on one side only: books quote a price for a player to score, never against it.
NFL simulator questions
How does the simulation decide whether a touchdown comes through the air or on the ground?
From the priced passing-touchdown market where the book posts one, and from a measured share where it does not: about 64% of regular-season touchdowns are passing, against roughly 57% in preseason. That split has to hold in the same run that produced the score, so the receiving, rushing and anytime-scorer markets cannot tell different stories about the same touchdown.
Why is an NFL total described as lumpy?
Football scores in chunks of 3 and 7, so simulated totals pile up on some numbers and skip others. A game lands on 20 or 24 far more often than on 21 or 22. That shape is exactly what an alternate-total ladder is describing, and it is why a single median number tells you less in football than in baseball.
How are preseason games handled?
As their own competition, with their own feed and their own configuration. Starters play a fraction of the snaps, the scoring profile differs, and the overtime rules are not the same, so treating a preseason game as a regular-season one would misstate all three.
Which NFL player markets are simulated?
Quarterback, running back, receiver and tight end markets wherever the book posts them, plus first and anytime touchdown scorers. Touchdown markets are priced on one side only and resolve against the same simulated drives that produced the score, so the anytime-scorer rates and the team total cannot disagree.
Run an NFL game yourself
Open the simulator to pick an NFL game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · MLB game simulator · NHL game simulator · WNBA game simulator · CFL game simulator · MLS game simulator