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Today across every sport
Sportsbook lines
Pulled directly from the loaded sportsbook (DraftKings). No simulation has run on these numbers — they are the prices the book is taking action on.
Market snapshot — what the book is offering
Simulator output
Generated by running thousands of game scripts off the sportsbook lines above. These are the simulator's central reads.
Score center — what the simulator produces
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80% range —
Goal markets
Simulated goal distribution per team, with the book's team-total line marked. Over rates shown sim vs book.
Team goal totals
Result markets
Most likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score, and double chance — simulated vs the book's no-vig price.
Match markets
Handicap
Split-line handicap cover rates. Quarter lines (±0.25 / ±0.75) settle half-win / half-push.
Asian handicap
Corners
Simulated corner distribution and over rates vs the book.
Total corners
Calibration check
How the simulator's central reads compare to the prices the book is offering.
Simulation vs Sportsbook Gaps
Decision layer
Central reads from the simulated set.
Main takeaways
Outcome and pace
How often the simulation set lands in each bucket.
Distributions
Margin
Total
Player simulation layer
Market-implied stat lines across simulated scripts.
Average box score
Box score signals
- SUPPORTED — simulation and sportsbook lean the same way. The direction is aligned but the gap may be small.
- NEUTRAL — simulation expects the result to be close to the line and there is no clear lean.
- OPPOSED — simulation and sportsbook disagree on which side hits.
Player leans
For each stat, the SUPPORTED player whose simulated median is furthest from the line. These are the model's strongest directional reads.
Biggest Model Leans
Calibration
How closely the simulator tracks the book on priced player props. Higher score = sim and market agree more. It's a sanity check on the simulator.
Market agreement
Player simulation layer
80% range simulated bands.
Player stat ranges
Period markets
How simulated period scoring lines up with each line.
Quarter and half totals
Period moneylines
Simulated win rate per period vs. the sportsbook's no-vig moneyline.
Quarter and half moneylines
Specialty market
Game first scorer, filtered through first-team-basket odds when available.
First basket
Specialty market
First scorer for each team, compared within that team.
First team basket
Specialty market
Simulated first-scoring method split; market shown only when returned by the feed.
Method of first basket
Specialty market
Anytime first-goal odds vs simulated rate.