How we validate our simulations
Validation means checking that each simulation faithfully translates its published market inputs into a stable, internally consistent game distribution. It does not mean grading picks, because SimTheGame does not make picks.
Reviewed
Validation is not a picks record
SimTheGame is a market-implied simulation platform. The sportsbook market supplies the probabilities and the platform translates them into complete game scripts. There is no SimTheGame side, selection, or promised winner to grade. A win-loss record, return-on-investment claim, or league leaderboard would describe a different product and would give readers the wrong expectation.
What we validate
- Input fidelity. Every modeled market must trace back to a published sportsbook price and source timestamp. Missing markets are not filled with an undisclosed house opinion.
- Probability conversion. American or decimal odds are converted into implied probabilities, with sportsbook margin treated explicitly when both sides are available.
- Internal consistency. Each generated game must obey the sport's rules. Periods add to the final, player scoring reconciles with team scoring, combined statistics reconcile with their components, and mutually exclusive outcomes remain mutually exclusive.
- Simulation stability. Re-running the same frozen inputs should produce only the sampling movement expected from 10,000 simulated games. Unexpected drift is treated as an implementation problem, not a new sports opinion.
How sampling stability should be read
Monte Carlo simulation uses repeated random draws, so two runs from identical inputs will not be perfectly identical. For an event with modeled probability p and n independent draws, the approximate standard error of the observed rate is sqrt(p × (1-p) / n). At p = 50% and n = 10,000, that is about 0.5 percentage points.
This calculation checks whether the simulation engine is behaving consistently around the probability it received. It does not claim that the real game is predictable to within half a percentage point, and it does not convert a market probability into a guarantee.
What we do not publish
No win-loss record
The platform does not issue official picks, so there is no honest SimTheGame picks record to display.
No sport leaderboard
We do not rank leagues by wins, losses, or profitability. Different sports are presentation layers over the same market-implied principle.
No claimed betting edge
A difference between related market prices can be surfaced as a gap signal, but it is not a recommendation, expected return, or promise of profit.
How readers can assess the platform
| Check | What it establishes | What it does not establish |
|---|---|---|
| Source traceability | The simulation begins with identifiable published prices | That the sportsbook price will be correct |
| Probability reproduction | Repeated draws reflect the probability supplied to the engine | That a likely event must happen in one game |
| Game reconciliation | The generated score, periods, and player statistics can coexist | That the displayed game script is a prediction of the exact result |
| Run-to-run stability | 10,000 simulations provide a suitably stable summary | That real-world uncertainty has been removed |
Known limitations
- Sportsbook prices can be stale, incomplete, suspended, or inconsistent across books.
- Thin player markets constrain the detail the simulator can support; the engine does not invent missing markets.
- Late injuries, lineup changes, weather, and news matter only after they are reflected in the published prices being read.
- Ten thousand runs reduce simulation noise, but they cannot remove uncertainty from the underlying event or market.
Read the methodology for the full simulation boundary. Material changes to this validation framework will be recorded in the changelog, and reproducible problems can be submitted through the corrections process.