NHL Game Simulator
Every NHL game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook markets, producing a goal total, a full box score for skaters and goalies, and the distribution around the result.
Today's NHL board
No NHL games are on the board right now. The NHL regular season runs from October into April, followed by the playoffs. When games are posted and sportsbooks price them, they appear here automatically.
How an NHL simulation is built
A hockey simulation has to handle low-scoring games where a single goal moves everything. Team goals are sampled jointly so the moneyline, total and both team-total ladders reproduce together, and the three period markets are honored as splits that add back to the final score. The player layer covers skaters and goalies as separate populations, a goalie's simulated save total has to agree with the goals the opposing skaters were simulated to score. Shutout and overtime markets fall out of the same runs rather than being priced separately.
- P1First period
- P2Second period
- P3Third period
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- P1: First period
- P2: Second period
- P3: Third period
What gets priced into an NHL simulation
These are the market families the NHL engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team goals · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- P1, P2 and P3
- Player markets
- Skaters and goalies
- Specialty markets
- First goal, shutout and overtime markets
SimTheGame keeps no NHL power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how NHL markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced NHL market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which NHL markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Puck line
- Game total
- Both team goal totals
- Period totals and spreads
- Skater props
- Goalie saves
- First goal, shutout and overtime markets
First-goal and anytime-goalscorer markets are priced on one side only, which is most of a hockey game's player board.
NHL simulator questions
How are goalies simulated?
As their own population, separate from skaters. A goalie's simulated save total has to agree with the shots and goals the opposing skaters were simulated to produce in that same run, so the two sides of the ice cannot tell different stories about the same game.
What happens in overtime and shootouts?
The simulation tracks whether a run reaches overtime, so the overtime market and the regulation-result market come from the same set of games rather than being priced separately. Shutout markets fall out of the same runs for the same reason.
Why do hockey totals cluster so tightly?
A typical NHL game prices in a narrow band around six goals, so a single goal moves the result far more than in a high-scoring sport. That is why the 80% band on a hockey game looks small next to a basketball one; it is a genuinely tighter distribution, not a more confident model.
Which NHL player markets get simulated?
Skater markets such as shots, points and goals, plus goalie saves, wherever the book has posted them. First-goal and anytime-goalscorer markets are priced on one side only, which covers most of a hockey player board.
Run an NHL game yourself
Open the simulator to pick an NHL game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · NFL game simulator · MLB game simulator · WNBA game simulator · CFL game simulator · MLS game simulator