MLB Game Simulator
Every MLB game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook prices, producing a run total, a full box score across both lineups, and the distribution of outcomes around them.
Today's MLB board
CRCincinnati Reds
CWSChicago White Sox
PPPittsburgh Pirates
MMMiami Marlins
CGCleveland Guardians
DTDetroit Tigers
SMSeattle Mariners
NYYNew York Yankees
BRSBoston Red Sox
TBJToronto Blue Jays
CCChicago Cubs
WNWashington Nationals
PPPhiladelphia Phillies
MTMinnesota Twins
TRTexas Rangers
LAALos Angeles Angels
MBMilwaukee Brewers
LADLos Angeles Dodgerssimulated runs, both teams combined
Show these numbers as a table
| Game | Median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox | 8 | 3 to 17 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins | 9 | 5 to 13 |
| Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers | 9 | 5 to 12 |
| Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees | 7 | 2 to 17 |
| Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays | 8 | 5 to 12 |
| Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals | 9 | 3 to 16 |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins | 9 | 6 to 13 |
| Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels | 8 | 3 to 15 |
| Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 2 to 17 |
How an MLB simulation is built
Baseball is the sport where the interior structure matters most. Instead of quarters, the simulation reconciles the first-inning, first-three, first-five and first-seven markets, each of which has to be honored on its own and still add up to the full nine. The player layer splits into three populations that behave differently: the batting order, the starting pitcher, and the bullpen that follows. First-inning markets, YRFI and NRFI, resolve against the same simulated first inning that the F1 total is drawn from, so those two can never disagree.
- F1First inning
- F3Through three
- F5Through five
- F7Through seven
- FullNine innings
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- F1: First inning
- F3: Through three
- F5: Through five
- F7: Through seven
- Full: Nine innings
What gets priced into an MLB simulation
These are the market families the MLB engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team runs · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- F1, F3, F5 and F7 innings
- Player markets
- Hitters, starting pitcher and bullpen
- Specialty markets
- YRFI, NRFI and strikeout props
SimTheGame keeps no MLB power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how MLB markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced MLB market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which MLB markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Run line
- Game total
- Both team run totals
- First-inning, first-three, first-five and first-seven markets
- Hitter props
- Starting-pitcher props including strikeouts
- YRFI and NRFI
Anytime-home-run markets are priced on one side only: there is a price for a batter to homer, not against it.
MLB simulator questions
Does the simulation account for the starting pitcher?
It accounts for the starting pitcher's priced markets: strikeouts, outs recorded, earned runs and the rest of the posted board. The player layer splits into three populations that behave differently, the batting order, the starter, and the bullpen that follows, because a run in the second inning and a run in the eighth come from different sources.
What are YRFI and NRFI, and how do they stay consistent?
Yes or No Run First Inning. They resolve against the same simulated first inning the F1 total is drawn from, so the two can never disagree. If the simulation says the first inning goes scoreless 58% of the time, that is exactly the NRFI rate it reports.
What do the F3, F5 and F7 markets mean?
Each is the game so far: through three innings, through five, through seven. They are nested rather than sequential, so F5 contains F3, which contains F1. Each is priced on its own and each has to hold in the same run that produces the full nine-inning score.
Why is a baseball 80% range so wide?
Baseball's run distribution has a long right tail. A game whose median is 8 runs can comfortably finish at 3 or at 15, and the 80% band reports that honestly rather than hiding it behind a single number. A narrow band on this page means the market itself is pricing a tight game.
Run an MLB game yourself
Open the simulator to pick an MLB game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · NFL game simulator · NHL game simulator · WNBA game simulator · CFL game simulator · MLS game simulator