NCAAF Game Simulator
Every college football game on the board is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook prices, producing a final score, a full offensive box score and the range of outcomes around them.
Today's NCAAF board
NSWNC State Wolfpack
VCVirginia Cavaliers
JSGJacksonville State Gamecocks
NDSNorth Dakota State Bison
SSHSacramento State Hornets
EMEEastern Michigan Eagles
NMSNew Mexico State Aggies
FSSFlorida State Seminoles
HRWHawaii Rainbow Warriors
SCStanford Cardinal
MTMemphis Tigers
URUNLV Rebelssimulated points, both teams combined
Show these numbers as a table
| Game | Median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|
| NC State Wolfpack at Virginia Cavaliers | 51 | 30 to 73 |
| Jacksonville State Gamecocks at North Dakota State Bison | 47 | 27 to 69 |
| Sacramento State Hornets at Eastern Michigan Eagles | 53 | 32 to 76 |
| New Mexico State Aggies at Florida State Seminoles | 54 | 35 to 75 |
| Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Stanford Cardinal | 49 | 29 to 72 |
| Memphis Tigers at UNLV Rebels | 56 | 35 to 80 |
How an NCAAF simulation is built
College football has a far wider range of outcomes than the NFL does, and the simulation is configured for it rather than inheriting the pro game's assumptions. A 40-point spread is an ordinary Saturday, team totals reach into the 60s, and a fitter bounded to NFL-sized numbers would clip the favourite's scoring rate and mis-price the whole game. Overtime is alternating possessions rather than sudden death, so each side gets the ball and a tied game adds points in blocks, which puts materially more weight in the right tail of the total than an NFL overtime does. Quarters and halves reconcile to the full game, the player layer splits into passing, rushing and receiving, and touchdown-scorer markets resolve against the same simulated drives that produced the score.
- Q1First quarter
- Q2Second quarter
- Q3Third quarter
- Q4Fourth quarter
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- Q1: First quarter
- Q2: Second quarter
- Q3: Third quarter
- Q4: Fourth quarter
What gets priced into an NCAAF simulation
These are the market families the NCAAF engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team points · moneyline · total
- Period markets
- Q1–Q4 and H1–H2
- Player markets
- Quarterback, running back and receiver markets
- Specialty markets
- First touchdown and anytime touchdown
SimTheGame keeps no NCAAF power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how NCAAF markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced NCAAF market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which NCAAF markets get tagged
- Moneyline
- Spread
- Game total
- Both team point totals
- Quarter and half totals and spreads
- Passing, rushing, receiving and reception props
- First, last and anytime touchdown
Touchdown-scorer markets are priced on one side only. A college board is also very uneven: a ranked matchup carries a deep player board while a non-conference mismatch may be priced on the game lines alone, so far fewer rows are tagged.
NCAAF simulator questions
Why does college football need its own configuration rather than the NFL's?
Because the range of outcomes is much wider. Spreads run past 40 points and team totals reach into the 60s, so the bounds the fitter searches within have to be wider too. Applying NFL-sized bounds to a Saturday mismatch caps the favourite's scoring rate, and every market that reads off the score inherits the error.
How is college overtime simulated?
As alternating possessions, not sudden death. Both teams get the ball from a fixed yard line and the format can run several rounds, each adding points in blocks of 3, 6, 7 or 8. That produces a visibly fatter right tail on the total than an NFL overtime, where the first score can end it, and the alternate-total ladder reflects that.
Why do some college games show far fewer player markets than others?
Because the sportsbooks price them that way. A televised conference game gets a deep player board; a non-conference mismatch in week one may be posted on the game lines alone. The simulation reproduces the markets that exist, so a thin board produces a box score built from fewer priced thresholds and more of the roster.
How are FCS opponents handled?
The same way as anyone else. An FBS schedule pulls in visitors from outside the top division, and those teams are simulated from their own priced markets rather than from any rating. Where a roster is unavailable the box score falls back to whatever the player markets resolve, and the game lines are unaffected.
Run an NCAAF game yourself
Open the simulator to pick an NCAAF game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
Other simulators: NBA game simulator · NFL game simulator · MLB game simulator · NHL game simulator · WNBA game simulator · CFL game simulator · Soccer game simulator