Soccer Game Simulator
Every match on the board, across MLS, the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1, is simulated 10,000 times from the live sportsbook markets, producing a scoreline, a full player box score and the distribution of results, including the draw. Soccer, futbol or fútbol, it is the same game and the same simulation.
Today's Soccer board
simulated goals, both teams combined
Show these numbers as a table
| Game | Median | 80% range |
|---|---|---|
| Lille at Toulouse | 3 | 1 to 6 |
| Celta Vigo at Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 to 6 |
How a Soccer simulation is built
Soccer is the one sport here where the draw is a first-class result, not a rounding artifact, so the three-way market is simulated directly rather than being derived from a two-way price. Both-teams-to-score and the half markets are reconciled against the same scorelines, which is where internally inconsistent pricing tends to show up. Goals are low enough that the shape of the distribution matters more than its centre: the difference between a 1–0 and a 2–1 is most of the market. Goalscorer markets resolve against the same simulated goals the scoreline is built from. Every competition runs on the same engine and the same market list, which is why they share one page: what changes between MLS and Serie A is the clubs and the prices, not the method.
- 1HFirst half
- 2HSecond half
Every piece is priced on its own, and the pieces reconcile to the full game.
Show these segments as a list
- 1H: First half
- 2H: Second half
What gets priced into a Soccer simulation
These are the market families the Soccer engine reads and reproduces. A given game only carries the markets its sportsbooks actually posted, so the depth varies from game to game.
- Game markets
- Team goals · 3-way result · both teams to score
- Period markets
- First half and second half
- Player markets
- Outfield players and keepers
- Specialty markets
- First and anytime goalscorer, and corners
SimTheGame keeps no Soccer power ratings of its own: the priced market is the forecasting source, which is why the output describes what the market implies rather than claiming to beat it. See where the prices come from and how fresh they are. The full breakdown of each game lives in the simulator, and a free account opens one a day.
Supported, neutral and opposed: how Soccer markets are tagged
Once the 10,000 runs are complete, every priced Soccer market is compared against the sportsbook's own price for it with the vig removed, and tagged supported, neutral or opposed. The full rule, and why these are transparency signals rather than recommendations, is set out in the methodology.
The line marks even money. Each row shows where the two sit relative to it.
simulation book, vig removed
Show these examples as a table
| Tag | Simulation | Book | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPPOSED | 44% | 57% | Simulation and book land on opposite sides of even money. |
| NEUTRAL | 50% | 51% | Both sit at the line, so neither states a direction. |
| SUPPORTED | 62% | 55% | Same direction, and the simulation is above the book's fair price. |
Which Soccer markets get tagged
- Three-way result
- Draw no bet and double chance
- Goal total
- Both team goal totals
- Both teams to score
- Half markets
- Player shot and goal props
- Corners
First and anytime goalscorer markets are priced on one side only. The three-way result is the opposite case: it has a third outcome, so the rule is applied to the side the simulation leans toward rather than to a two-way over/under.
Soccer simulator questions
Is this a futbol simulator?
Yes. Futbol, fútbol, calcio and soccer are the same sport, and this page covers it under whichever name you use. The simulator reads the published match odds for the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and MLS and rebuilds each match from them, so the method does not change with the vocabulary.
Which soccer leagues are covered?
MLS, the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A and Ligue 1. They share this page because they share an engine: the simulator reads whatever the book has priced and fits scorelines to it, carrying no team ratings and no league-specific rules, and DraftKings posts the same market list across all five. What differs between them is the clubs and the prices, not the method.
How is the draw handled?
As a first-class result, not a rounding artefact. The three-way market is simulated directly rather than derived from a two-way price, so the home, draw and away probabilities come out of the same 10,000 scorelines and add to 100% without being forced to.
What is both teams to score, and how does it stay consistent?
It is the price on both sides finding the net. Because it resolves against the same simulated scorelines as the result and the total, it cannot contradict them. Soccer is where internally inconsistent pricing tends to show up, and reconciling these against one another is how it surfaces.
Why does the shape of a soccer distribution matter more than the median?
Goals are low enough that the difference between 1-0 and 2-1 is most of the market. A median of two goals says very little on its own; the spread of scorelines behind it is what the totals, the draw price and both-teams-to-score are all reading.
Are corners and goalscorer markets simulated?
Corner totals, both team corner totals and first-half corners are, wherever the book posts them. Corners are fitted as a Poisson rather than read off a ladder, because books usually price only one corners line and a single-point ladder piles up mass at the top end instead of tapering. The buckets are drawn together, so the two team totals always sum to the game total and the first half is a sub-count of it. Goalscorer markets resolve against the same simulated goals the scoreline is built from, and because first and anytime scorer are quoted on one side only, the tagging rule treats them differently from a two-way market.
Run a Soccer game yourself
Open the simulator to pick a Soccer game and see the full 10,000-run breakdown, or browse every sport on today's board.
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